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Associate Manager, Sales Forecasting

Company: Mary Kay
Location: Dallas
Posted on: November 24, 2020

Job Description:

FINANCE DEPARTMENT Looking for a career where you can make a difference? Finance ensures that Mary Kay has financial resources to enrich women's lives by challenging our cross-functional partners, enabling data-driven decisions and safeguarding our assets. The department does this with objectivity and integrity. Our dedicated teams include opportunities in accounting, payroll, planning, forecasting, tax, treasury and internal audit. JOB PURPOSE Utilizes a high level of analytical abilities and advanced statistical knowledge to collect, model and analyze complex data related primarily to Sales, Sales Force, and SKU level items for the U.S. and international markets. Oversees the preparation of U.S. and international market product forecasts and sales variance analyses. ESSENTIAL DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES Supervises the ongoing product demand forecasting and analysis functions performed by Forecasting Analysts reporting to the incumbent to support development of monthly sales forecasts for the U.S. and international markets. Assigns Analyst workloads, prioritizes assignments/projects and reviews and evaluates forecast accuracy metrics for data integrity. Reviews trends identified and analyzed monthly by Forecasting Analysts to ensure they are reasonable given the overall trends in particular markets and regions. Reviews Analysts' recommendations each month of forecast demand and projected product sales and costs prior to completion each month. Reviews all reports prepared by Forecasting Analysts prior to publication and issuance for integrity and accuracy. Oversees the participation of Forecasting Analysts in monthly conference calls with International market management where approval for forecasts prepared is determined. Oversees the monthly gross sales and unit demand forecasting process for the U.S. and international markets based on assessments of historical trends and an understanding of manufacturing demands communicated by the Inventory Control group, utilizing both quantitative (historical sales, statistically-derived forecasts) and qualitative (sales, marketing and promotional program knowledge) factors to minimize forecast error. Analyzes past sales and marketing activity impacts and communicates results to a non-technical audience. Challenges assumptions and anticipated results of future plans based on historical data. Oversees the evaluation of probable sales, sales force and financial impact of sales promotions, economic environment, and other events in order to adjust the statistically-derived unit sales forecasts. The unit forecast is the beginning of the supply chain effort of the Company forwarded to Inventory Control and impacts inventory builds/reductions, manufacturing levels and customer service issues, including backorders. With guidance from the Manager, Forecasting & Analysis, investigates and develops new metrics or methodologies to improve forecasting accuracy so that sales are maximized and excess inventory investment is minimized. Anticipates significant forecast variances and communicates concerns to wider audiences and seeks ways to reconcile the variances. Independently gathers data from various sources and estimates the impact on sales and costs using established modeling techniques. Explains KPIs to non-technical audiences, and impact to sales and sales force. Conducts "impact analysis" of various programs on company KPIs and communicates results to cross-functional audiences. Supervises the preparation of special reports as requested by internal customers (Marketing, Inventory Control, International market management, executive management, etc.) to evaluate product demand, life cycle, forecast accuracy, etc. Regularly evaluates all special and ongoing reports prepared by staff to ensure understanding by all participants (Marketing, Sales, Inventory Control and executive management). Incorporates direct selling industry mechanics as well as MK sales force business rules, discount and commission structures, product complementarity and substitutability characteristics into forecasting models to ensure best possible forecast and/or analysis results. Keeps abreast of Company products and Sales and Marketing plans in order to manage the effective forecasting and analysis of sales of ongoing products throughout the Company and to report the results of such activities to Inventory Control, international markets, regional managers and executive management. Identifies and performs independent research on unusual transactions and finds root causes of issues, including verification of part numbers, prices, Bill of Materials, consistent categorization of SKU's within designated product lines, and verifying unit product cost data with Cost Accounting. Has an intermediate understanding of relevant modules of the system and the relationship to their job and general understanding of other operational modules. Ability to independently research problems. Intermediate understanding of downstream effects on other systems. Interacts regularly with U.S. and International Sales and Marketing groups along with Inventory Control to capture sales events and demand information, document assumptions and coordinate feedback to the Forecasting Analysts to improve accuracy and effectiveness of forecasts prepared by staff. Oversees monthly analyses of actual unit sales results to forecasts prepared by staff to ensure that statistical methodology standards are maintained. Communicates model accuracy and forecast variances with various functional areas and proactively tries to identify the root cause of model inaccuracy or high forecast variances. Provides training in the development of unit and product line forecasting methodology to new Forecasting Analysts and regularly evaluates the methods used by ongoing Analysts to ensure forecasting efficiency and integrity. Implements new market sales models and databases and oversees the training of new market Sales, Marketing and Operational employees in forecasting methods and reporting requirements. Hires, assesses performance, conducts performance appraisals, plans career development and sets annual performance objectives for employees supervised. Sets timelines for the team on projects. Manages resources and roadblocks to ensure projects stay on track. Ensures adequate review process for projects in their area. Understands appropriate level of approval needed for each project. KNOWLEDGE, SKILLS AND ABILITIES Education: Bachelor's degree or equivalent in Economics, Statistics, Business Administration, Accounting, Finance, Market Research, Marketing or other business-related discipline. A post-graduate degree and/or previous experience in an analysis or financial reporting role in a retail or direct selling environment preferred. Experience: 5-7 years of financial analysis or demand planning experience, including project management experience. Previous supervisory experience is preferred. Proficiency with statistical modeling, or economic and sales forecasting techniques and applications (such as R, EViews, SAS). Able to direct and structure regular product sales forecasting processes using large quantities of data from multiple sources. Strong PC skills with in-depth knowledge of MS Office tools, specifically MS Excel, PowerPoint and Access. Strong analytical skills required to resolve complex tasks. Knowledge of SQL Query language beneficial. Experience using Tableau and developing queries preferred, but not required. Experience using Agile, or stage-gate systems preferred, but not required. Excellent oral and written communication skills to interact with executive levels of management, including making frequent presentations. These skills are also necessary to interact with members of various departments and international markets with different cultures and backgrounds in order to gather data and provide information and present findings to all levels of management. Provides input on the corporation's financial policies and procedures and ensure business partners adhere to the policies and procedures. Inquisitive, innovative, adaptable to change and possessing the aptitude to approach problems from various viewpoints. COMPANY OVERVIEW At Mary Kay we are committed to enriching the lives of women and their families around the world, we offer careers with unlimited opportunities to do something beautiful every day. More than 5,000 employees work in locations around the world. They provide the products, marketing and other support to millions of Independent Beauty Consultants (IBCs) who work as independent contractors, selling our products directly to consumers in nearly 40 markets on five continents. We are a company that believes in our people and cares for them with truly exceptional benefits. We offer: A comprehensive health plan which includes medical, dental, and vision with low premiums 401(k) plan A generous profit-sharing program Free access to on-site fitness center and on-site clinic

Keywords: Mary Kay, Dallas , Associate Manager, Sales Forecasting, Accounting, Auditing , Dallas, Texas

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